Star Citizen – Extinction Level Event
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I knew that I had heard minimal viable product before with another fiasco. How could I forget. It was like a torch was passed from Russ Bullock to Chris Roberts back in that 2012. I believe it was the summer of 2012 when PGI made the announcement they would be releasing the minimal viable product for MechWarrior Online. PGI and MWO got skewered for the announcement.
Maybe a silver lining. MWO is still with us, four years later. Interesting to compare the two games and the reactions from the backers. The F2P MWO by CIG standards has some very affordable mechs. Something like $5 to $15 a mech. Hindsight makes me wonder if PGI shouldn’t have been charging a fortune. Seems once folks get $500+ into a project they sure don’t want to admit when things are looking bleak.
Yeah, the thing with MWO is that, even with all the crap that got thrown their way, they managed to deliver a game that people wanted and are playing.
Star Citizen is never – ever – going to get that far. Like ever.
One thing for sure is that the in game store for “non P2w” content will work smoothly when the minimum viable product is released in fact that might be what they mean that might be all that works smoothly…
No. If the project folds, they will file for bankruptcy. Then everything gets sold. I don’t envision any circumstance whereby any of this project ends up in the public domain.
So let’s enter hyper-speculative mode and discuss some ELE scenarios.
Scenario (1) Let’s assume that by mid 2016 they run dry. Let’s assume in CIG’s favor that Squadron 42 could come out in late 2016 if they have the financing and strong management. Currently they lack both. Both can be fixed by an investor pumping in an eight-figure sum and insisting on a leadership shakeup.
The problem is that I don’t see who should have any interest in picking up this project. Thanks to pre-payment via crowd funding there will be very little day one sales. Add the fact that Star Citizen / Squadron 42 is associated with negative news right now, which hurts sales again. The platform holders – Sony and Microsoft – wouldn’t pick this up since a) they don’t want to work with the current leadership, b) single-player games are commonly considered dead and c) a console port would be too costly and take too long. For the same reasons I can’t see a publisher pinking this one up. Nobody is longing for a story-driven, cut-scene heavy triple-AAA title right now. Not in this crowded release schedule.
They might have an interest in picking up Star Citizen as a console-MMO, but then again Microsoft already has a space sim in the XBox One version of Elite:Dangerous and Sony will have the same soon. If they went into negotiations with CIG they would quickly realize what a mess this project is in. Not to mention the fact that the SC backers should cry foul over a console version, with SC being marketed as a hardcore PC-only experience. Even though they won’t, since they already have proven to be gullable sheep.
In late 2017 it becomes clear that they can’t deliver Star Citizen. Sueing them is pointless though since they can use the mini-PTU as an excuse that they tried. Nobody *can* sue since class action lawsuits were ruled out in the EULA, but there will be a legal investigation. They will pay the fine and the chapter in the history books on Star Citizen can be written in late 2018.
Scenario (2) The whole thing goes bust in late 2016 and somebody will pick up the rights from the bankruptcy assets. THQ downfall might be a reference; Gearbox picking up PC projects (Duke Nukem Forever, Aliens – Colonial Marines) and porting them to console tech (UE3 in this case) might be another; K2 picking up All Points Bulletin and Hawken might be. Hard to come up with references though, since this is all – by definition – unprecedented. But how long will the legal side take? How long did it take in the case of THQ? 12 months? 18?
I can’t see this happening either, mostly for the reasons stated in (1). The upside of this scenario is that you could pick it up cheaper then by investment.
Scenario (3) Alright, let’s go totally bonkers. Let’s assume that there’s some billionaire out there who just for the f*** of it pumps millions into this thing and profitability is not a concern. Now, who could it be? Hm … CryEngine … Multiplayer infrastructure … Do I hear Lumberyard? Do I hear Jeff Bezos? Port everything over to AWS, eight year dev cost of maybe 200 $Mio and release in 2019? As a Lumberyard showcase? You heard it here first folks, you heard it here first 🙂
None of that will happen. The Star Citizen IP is now toxic. Just like the Shitizen community that sprung up around it.
I only see the following scenarios:
- A complete collapse in which neither Star Citizen, nor SQ42 get released. Game Over. The End.
- They limp along, then release SQ42 in 2017. It tanks. Game over. The End.
There is absolutely no other scenario here.
Hi there,
Seems I got banned from the official Frontier forums for discussing Star Citizen in an unwanted way.
Amusing fact: Their “volunteer moderators” seem to have sank thousands into Chris Roberts pockets. But even more amusing: Expressing concerns about SC is answered with badmouthing Frontier products using official moderator accounts on the official Frontier forums. No joke.
Somehow Frontier put people into power, who don’t like their game and support their direct competitor. Lesson learned: If you don’t employ and pay your forum moderators, someone else is going to pay them.
Still believe in the wet dream?
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