Star Citizen – Year Four
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Yeah, we’ve known for a while now that this “citizen” count was bogus. But each time I tweet it, they claim I’m making shit up. We don’t even think the actual user count is over 300K.
Naturally, since pre-Alpha 2.0 was rushed out and continues to be a disaster, you can’t post stuff like this on the official forums without getting abused. And if you post it on the Reddit forum, the same thing happens; plus it gets down-voted to oblivion.
Now it’s on wide release, more people get to see what they’re paying for and decide for themselves if they think it will ever finish in 2016; let alone ever see the light of day.
Ok, so I am going to preface this with…I am fairly new to the whole controversy. I am a backer. And I sincerely acknowledge that CIG has made several developmental and PR errors with the game. I just finished reading what took several hours most of the blogs (skipping over the dramatic parts). And I am considering getting a refund.
Now that being said I am usually the guy that asks the tough questions but I do so only in the interest of keeping things fact based and examining the heart of the issue. I do not ask the tough questions for the purpose of intentionally discrediting one side or the other.
So specifically regarding the blog I wanted to try an organize this in a clear way:
CIG Not Delivering On Promises:
I totally agree with you here. They have not delivered on any of their promises and that quite frankly really hurts their credibility. This is one of the reasons why I am considering a refund.
CIG is Mis-Allocating Backer Funds and is At Risk of Failing:
So this is what confuses me as a fact based skeptic. I know you firmly believe that they are misallocating funds, and maybe you have some info that I don’t, but to a guy like me I only see that they showing steady (but certainly not timely or fast) results. Buying a bigger office to fit everyone….etc. These are not indications of fund misallocation or at risk of failure. Can you explain why you feel this way?
Backers Buying JPEG’s for Ships:
Again, I am not trying to be cynical towards any one side. But I am not sure what your message is. I agree that backers are buying pictures of JPEGS and quite frankly I can’t fathom why some would spend so much but its not my money. I am not sure what the point of this part of the blog is about except for pointing out the fact that there are some fanatical people that aren’t frugal with their money.
3 Years of Development vs 4 Years of Development
This is a great point, but one I think needs to be proven and confirmed by facts. You referenced an article, but after reading the article I didn’t really see where Chris admits that the game has been in full steam development. I see a guy trying to raise funds to start actual development of the game.
Anyways I think time will tell once this lawsuit finally gets underway and all the evidence finally gets out.
For fund allocation, I can give you an answer. It is much cheaper and cost effective to run a game studio in Austin, Texas. The studio in Santa Monica, California is near a beach and extremely expensive. I do not know enough about the new Los Angeles studio to have a good say, but it would have been better use of backer money to expand Austin. Generally, crowdfunded projects should be using backer money in a conservative manner, to increase project success and minimize waste.
There is another forum that is having fun tracking down all the expensive furniture their new studio has. The folks there are having a field day with finding $1,000-2,000 furniture used in CIG streams or shows. It’s damning.
For buying JPEGS, it depends on which ones you own. Some of the stuff they sold back in November 2013 is still not available in any shape or form in the hangar. If Chris has shown no intention of delivering the product on time, what indication is there he ever will? Let alone turning old JPEGS sold into actual ships? Folks are spending more money to support the project, but it is an insane mistake since Chris never has to deliver more than the minimum.
Lawsuits are a slow process. Don’t expect to hear anything for a long time. Derek shares what he can, and is working with his attorneys to keep things as public as possible.
Send in your refund request asap. If you are just a tiny purchase, you have a tiny chance of getting a refund. For folks like me who spent $2,500… totally screwed.
@MDrake SC , still no refund? That actually makes me sad. Because I thought CIG was “owning up” to not living up to everyones expectation, and now that they blew past $100 million I thought they could lower the bar of what’s required to get a refund.
At the same time, you have to remember that no game developer would give you your money back any more easily than CIG! I had to fight for my refund for the new Deus Ex game when they launched their bullshit website to get more preorders. Eventually I got a refund, and they publically admitted “we fucked up!”. What I’m trying to say is getting a refund is by no means a consumer right you have after the two weeks (I think?) “no questions asked”-refund time period is up. If you’re a Kickstarter backer, like myself and Derek was, you may have a case though.
But I really do hope you get your refund!
Regarding this entire inventory lists, I find that rather petty to be honest. Yes, CIG said all money would go to game development, but questioning their choice of lamps as too expensive? Really? How’s that any different than the gargantuan Orc statue outside Blizzard’s HQ in Irvine which has the same purpose – “we have money!”. If you follow the money trail it all comes from the people playing their games and monthly subscribing to them, it’s no different. We give CIG money to make a game the same way we pay Blizzard to play the games they’ve made. Who here gets do decide what can be labeled as going to “game development”? I mean, coders need coffee – so why not bring in the best coffee machine? Designers need light, why not buy the best lamp? It’s just petty so sit on the sidelines looking at every frame from their offices and putting price tags on their inventory and it really should be beneath this entire argument.
I don’t have the figures of what their Santa Monica studio cost in rent, considering the location it should’ve been rather expensive and one can hope that’s why they built a new office. Because in my head I was screaming “wtf you doing? trying to get 2.0 as bug free out as possible AND moving offices!? when I heard about it”. But this is another one of the unknown that might get public of Derek gets his will. Another thing that might get public is Derek’s statement of the Roberts buying a new house and cars with backers money, that’s a really serious accusation and if true might very well ruin all reputation that’s left. And it’d certainly tip me over to ask for a refund – if it’s really true.
Speaking of Derek’s statements – we’re down to 3 weeks left on the clock of Dereks guaranteed CIG bankruptcy , while CIG are 1 year overdue with “Wing Commander’s spiritual sucessor”.
CIG is giving refunds to folks in the EU. Mainly thanks to the EU consumer protection laws which are stronger than the USA equivalents. I’d rather not talk about my refund situation at this point.
CIG could have chosen to use more cost effective furniture… but they didn’t. Here is a $400-600 lamp that I’ve seen in CIG streams or shows. Cannot find an easy picture with it, but last time I saw it was in Ben’s office. Here is a $1,900 desk, notice the whole wing of an airplane theme…
All of that airplane style furniture… is not cheap. They are nearly all from the overpriced Restoration Hardware catalog. Chris has always cared for style over substance, just look at the HUD for any of the ships. He’ll have expensive stylized furniture for his offices, even when cheaper and just as functional furniture is available. Chris has no respect for backer money. He’ll spend, waste, whatever he feels like to sustain an image of success.
If Chris had released a lot more content by now… like 5 missions of SQ42, or maybe the Caterpillar or Starfarer ships, or maybe refueling, mining, exploration mechanics… then it would be somewhat OK to have all that expensive stuff. Since the project is way behind, there are constant sales, and a recent series of constant patches to get 2.0 out the door… Things are bad at CIG. Desperate even.
The next livestream will have Javelins and Idrises for sale. Gotta get 2.0 out to show that enough of a game exists, and encourage folks to spend cash.
Derek is slowly changing his tune about CIG crashing by January, with the newest number at $11.35 million. I was right that CIG would be able to make enough money per sale, from the whales, to keep going till at least March 2016.
It’s really a matter of when Derek can reveal details about his lawsuit. While I hope it is in December, I suspect end of January as more likely at the earliest.
Don’t forget. Chris and Ortwin threatened the Escapist with a lawsuit. Where is that lawsuit? Why did the Escapist just shrug off CIG’s threat? It’s because CIG is in deep trouble, and the Escapist called Ortwin’s legal bluff.
There’s over $10K worth of furniture in that shot. We have been following and posting about that for weeks now. It’s in my Twitter feed.
As to my guidance about their operations, I had given them 90 days; which would expire in January, 2016.
Sure they made quite a bit of money in Oct/Nov due to CitizenCon & the anniversary sale. But given their monthly burn rate disclosed by third-parties, all that does is buy them about two months or so. They have to make at least $3m per month to sustain development across four studios.
So even if they are still around by end of Jan 2016, regardless, they will still need financial investment in order to continue being a going concern.
And since the whales are all probably tapped out by now, coupled with the state of the mini-PU 2.0 which shows clear evidence that the game, as promised, is still several years away, their next push after December stream/sale this week, is going to be SQ42. But even so, they still have a big problem in that over 700K people are getting that for free.
Like all things related to analysis, it’s not a perfect, but I still believe that something huge will happen to this project in 2016.
As to lawsuits, there is a very good reason why I don’t talk about that anymore, following the 11/30 expiration of the ToS in question. And I am not going to comment on that any further.
As for RSI/CIG, they’re not going to sue anyone as that will open up a massive can of worms; all of which will lead to their financials. They know this very well.
@kristof
still no refund? That actually makes me sad. Because I thought CIG was “owning up” to not living up to everyones expectation, and now that they blew past $100 million I thought they could lower the bar of what’s required to get a refund.
They are doing it selectively. And more and more people are making it public now. This one is recent.
Regarding this entire inventory lists, I find that rather petty to be honest. Yes, CIG said all money would go to game development, but questioning their choice of lamps as too expensive? Really? How’s that any different than the gargantuan Orc statue outside Blizzard’s HQ in Irvine which has the same purpose – “we have money!”.
You realize that’s rubbish, right? This game is 100% crowd-funded and they are legally required to spend the money on the game; regardless of whatever misleading statements they made. Here in the US, the FTC, which is a Federal dept, makes this very – very – clear and specifically to crowd-funded projects. Spending that kind of money on expensive furniture, is not conducive to responsible spending which in turn will lead to the demise of the project before they can deliver it.
And guess what, the AG of at least two States, and the FTC, have taken action against crowd-funded projects for spending money on things not pertaining to the project.
And if/when this whole thing collapses, how they spent the money is going to be paramount to what legal action and remedies they face.
Speaking of Derek’s statements – we’re down to 3 weeks left on the clock of Dereks guaranteed CIG bankruptcy , while CIG are 1 year overdue with “Wing Commander’s spiritual sucessor”.
I never said anything about them being bankrupt. I said I gave them 90 days before they hit financial troubles. Yes, there is a difference.
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