Star Citizen - The E.L.E.

[dsmart]

However...as things are, it is not unreasonable to suppose the CIG might indeed be running out of money, especially with the latest letter from
Roberts. It's a nice begging letter...but still a begging letter.

Overall? CIG probably has enough money on hand to finish the game. They are probably going to bring in enough from ship sales for a while to slow down any leaks but there is a fair possibility that they are spending money as fast as they can make it.

However, without more data, we can't know for sure.

Anyone who doesn't think they need money, is just being an idiot.

Chris, who has been lying since day one, went on the record and stated:

Long ago I stopped looking at this game the way I did when I worked for a publisher who gave me a fixed budget to make a retail game. I now look at our monthly fundraising and use that to set the amount of resources being used to develop this game. We keep a healthy cash reserve so that if funding stopped tomorrow we would still be able to deliver Star Citizen (not quite to the current level of ambition, but well above what was planned in Oct 2012). If you combine our in-house staff and outsourced developers, we now number more than 280 people. Your support has created a significant number of jobs in the gaming industry. (And no matter what you might have heard, only a small number of our team is tasked with designing new ships!)” - Chris Roberts, Letter From The Chairman, Sept 2014

That was when the game(s) were coming out in Nov 2014. Then it wasn't.

Then it was Q4/2015. Then it wasn't.

Then it was Q4/2016. Then it wasn't.

Since 2012, the studio has grown exponentially; which of course adds to the costs and expenses of running 4 worldwide studios. Not to even mention the taxes.

In Q4/16, for the first time ever, they started a new "cash" based sales strategy in order to bring in new money. Note that they created this problem with a system that they put in place and which allowed backers to melt ships to credit, then buy other ships. Any business minded person will know that they won't have done that had they foreseen the game taking longer, and thus costing more. Which of course means whale milking.

And to top if all off, again in Q4/16 - the year they were to deliver both games - they spent time, resources and money on tech demos at both GamesCom and CitizenCon in order to scam whales with stuff they know aren't even likely to be in the game. And of course 3.0, the "Jesus Patch" was coming by end of the year as well.

During last week's anniversary stream, the newsletter (also an RSI web post) all amounted to "WE NEED MOAH MONIES!"

I would love to see a solid argument that points to all of this being business as usual, and that all of these actions don't point to a project desperately in need of on-going funding.

[Kyrt]

Anyone who doesn't think they need money, is just being an idiot.

When I say I think they have enough money to finish the game, I'm thinking more of the promised Minimum Viable Product that CIG were talking about going for.

Such a product could be achieved fairly quickly by stripping out many of the features, putting in place only basic mechanics and cutting back on the depth available in most systems.

So - CIG probably has enough money and a big enough to put something out.

Looking from the outside, it is difficult to suggest anything else. We don't know how much CIG are paying their developers. Are they paid the average wage? Higher? Lower? Do US devs get paid more than UK ones?

We CAN see that CIG get about $2-3 million a month in funding...and likely spend between $1.5 million and $3.5 million on wages and running costs alone. We can surmise they built up a buffer in previous years which can support them but we also know that without  a publisher they will have to bear the marketing costs themselves, unless they want to go with just the existing backers and no large numbers of newbloods

You work in the industry so you likely have a better idea of the true costs than many here.

And yes - as I said, Roberts letter struck me as very much a begging letter and one that did strike me as implying you were correct, at least to some degree.

Personally - I think they do have a buffer, but that their costs are only slightly below their income via ship sales. I would surmise the price they charge for ships depends at least in part on their actual need for money - so if they do need more, the ship packages will cost more. I don't think they are in danger of running out...but I do think that their finances probably aren't as comfortable as they would wish.

[dsmart]

Those are all valid points.

However, the problem they have now is that even with an MVP, which Chris had already hinted at (heck even his 4.0 by end of 2017 isn't even an MVP!), they still won't be able to deliver that by end of 2017. Which means they will still need on-going funding to even deliver that. Not to mention that he's bet a lot on SQ42. I don't know if anyone thinks that SQ42 has any chance of making an impact, when in fact most backers already entitled to it. Not to mention the fact that all the money they are making from concept ships, are for the PU, not SQ42.

In my anniversary stream write-up, I talked about the schedule (excerpt below) itself which clearly is just more pandering to whales in order to instill confidence and get funding.

ps: I wasn't calling you an idiot btw. I was making a general statement.


PROJECT SCHEDULE

In what can only be described as utterly hilarious is that they also – for the first time ever – released something of a dev schedule for the project.

For the near term builds, they show 6 weeks past, but only 3 weeks future planning. And given all the statements they were making about Star Marine, Squadron42 etc following CitizenCon, and how they were “coming soon”, if you look at the schedule, you will see that Star Marine is targeted for release in less than two weeks; though what was shown at this stream clearly indicates otherwise. More on that later.

And even the 2.6 patch (containing Star Marine) which they played on the stream, was shown as being released to Evocati on the day (11/18) of the stream. Considering that the patch schedule is dev -> internal testing -> external (Evocati) testing -> live, how does anyone see this patch being ready for live in the short term?

And the timeline for the 3.0 patch (which sources had told me simply doesn’t exist) which Chris had gone on two recent events and said was coming by end of the year; even though he knew the statement to be patently false, is clearly nowhere in the near term schedule. In fact, it doesn’t even have a schedule. Just a listing similar to the Powerpoint slides that he has used at the two previous events. The Squadron 42 game which was coming in 2015, then 2016, and pushed into 2017, doesn’t appear in the schedule either.

[jcrg99]

I think it's relevant to look at a person's previous predictions when they make similar predictions later on

Fair enough. Now point this same thought to Chris Roberts ;)
Hah! That pretty much contradicted all your hopes, certainties and optimistic views about this project. Roberts failed in ALL his predictions about the plans that he made for Star Citizen. ALL! Derek Smart failed just in a couple of his owns. In any case, How can you have so optimistic view considering that the CEO of the company failed in ALL his plans presented to the public? How that can't be relevant and its relevant only in one specific case of the Smart's history when analysing this project?

@Jcrg99: You offer a lot of opinion. Yes there are lots of people playing the alpha, this is a fact.

Actuallly the only "Fact" related to that is something that a dev shared while ago in a "refund" letter, as far as I remember. And that was very mediocre number. So, you are simply inverting the reality here. You are the one stating opinions without basis.

It may be buggy and broken but people playing it see the potential.

That is another opinion without basis. People could be playing it and seeing that it can't be finished as promised too in any acceptable/working time frame (considering the reality of the market). Yes. That was an opinion of my side. But you tried to sound that yorus is a fact. It's not. Unless you have some data/info that we don't.

If there are only 2,000 whales propping the company up are you suggesting the over 2.5 million in 4 days is solely from them? Seriously? That's ridiculous.

Why? That is pretty much the average of the followers of SC if you look to any other stats that they shown in the past/present. Their ships are sold by very high prices and in general they don't need to sell too much to make 2.5 million in 4 days.

Your confirmation bias is showing here I'm afraid. You've lost any and all objective viewpoint you may have once had.

Actually, it's you that is showing that here and lost objectivity, which I am afraid, you never had.

The game is coming and there will be many people playing it.

Talking about losing objectivity and giving baseless opinions.

It's coming slower than we all wanted, never going to argue with that, but check the funding chart and citizen numbers and tell me again there's no one interested. With a straight face.

As far as I know, their counter is not audited. Is it? And I also know that they tried to use that for years, pretending that it was a number of backers when it wasn't. So, yeah... when you see a pattern of smoke and mirrors, deception, you can expect that their counter is far to be accurate too. The fact that you are basing all your thoughts in that counter, already demonstrated as inaccurate many times, and used as a false advertising tool by members of RSI and its fans, shown how zero objectivity you have and/or how naive you are. But I guess it has nothing to do with naivety and more with 'propaganda monkeys'.

[T.Bibliophile]

I sincerely hope Chris will update his community on the development road maps and timelines, and that they won't just be the same plus 2 months every update

[AP]

I think it's relevant to look at a person's previous predictions when they make similar predictions later on, so yes.

So do I, however I take a prediction as a prediction, a judgement call based on information available at the time.  It could be wrong, it could be right, it could be half right.


I'm interested if you treat peoples statements of fact in the same way, such as will Star Citizen be Pay 2 Win?  Because the way I see it, Derek Smart gets hilarious comments for making one prediction, while not working for the CIG, that turned out incorrect.  While Chris Roberts makes dozens of statements about things that turn out to be not to be true at all, and some would rather focus on "CIG hasn't gone bust yet!"


"yet" is such a small but important word, if CIG fails to put out an amazing game, who do you think History is going to judge more harshly, the guy that got the date wrong for free or the guy that wasted 150 million of other people's money?

[ConfusedMonkeh]

I think it's relevant to look at a person's previous predictions when they make similar predictions later on

Fair enough. Now point this same thought to Chris Roberts ;)
...
Roberts failed in ALL his predictions about the plans that he made for Star Citizen. ALL! Derek Smart failed just in a couple of his owns.

The difference is visible if you break it down. Chris says, '[We hope to give you, AC module/Planetside/Star Marine/2.0/2.5], [on this possible date/time frame]. First part happens. Second part is less predictable, but has happened eventually. Not exactly a fail.

Derek says, [Money runs out/Mass walk out/Law suits/Can't be done/Smoke and mirrors], [90 days tops/End of Year/Last CitizenCon]. None of which has happened. First part, (content), or second part, (time frame).

@Jcrg99: You offer a lot of opinion. Yes there are lots of people playing the alpha, this is a fact.

Actuallly the only "Fact" related to that is something that a dev shared while ago in a "refund" letter, as far as I remember. And that was very mediocre number. So, you are simply inverting the reality here. You are the one stating opinions without basis.

I'll say it again. Every time I log in to Crusader, there are people playing the game. Chat is busy, people are having fun. Fact. People are playing the game.

It may be buggy and broken but people playing it see the potential.

That is another opinion without basis. People could be playing it and seeing that it can't be finished as promised too in any acceptable/working time frame (considering the reality of the market). Yes. That was an opinion of my side. But you tried to sound that yorus is a fact. It's not. Unless you have some data/info that we don't.

See above. Chat is busy. People are excited. The forums are busy. People are excited. Trying to deny the potential of what is on offer is silly. How well they pull it off is a completely different conversation of course but come on, denying it's potential is ridiculous. Overwhelming confirmation bias again I'm afraid. I don't like it, so how can any one else!?

The time frame could be a potential problem but Squadron will be here fast enough, how good it is could decide the future of SC I suppose. With the number of rabid fans out there I get the feeling it won't need to be spectacular to be good enough to drive the project to completion. Time will tell.

Their ships are sold by very high prices and in general they don't need to sell too much to make 2.5 million in 4 days.

Meh. Funding is funding.

Actually, it's you that is showing that here and lost objectivity

Suppose we can agree to disagree.

The game is coming and there will be many people playing it.

Talking about losing objectivity and giving baseless opinions.

Please. Suggesting some kind of game won't come out now is pushing it. How good it will be is only relevant to semi long term survival. There are a lot of people with accounts that WILL play whatever game comes out.

After that, who knows. I think it might be quite good and lots will play. You may feel different. As I said, only time will tell, but there will be a game at some point. Starting with Squadron, which will generate a level of funding and interest, then onto the main event. Whatever that may end up consisting of.

As far as I know, their counter is not audited. Is it? And I also know that they tried to use that for years, pretending that it was a number of backers when it wasn't. So, yeah...

What we know:

'Citizens' is forum accounts.

Probable:

'UEE Fleet' number of accounts with ships attached?

Hardly a conspiracy.


The counter has to be considered accurate. Where else has the money to fund 4 studios and 377 staff come from? I admit it's accuracy, in terms of total funds available, can be questioned. Refunds don't make it fall. (A few grand refund would show up as a negative amount in the vast majority of 'hour' stats on the bar graph, which hasn't happened), but neither does it account for sponsorship deals with AMD and now NVIDIA or tax breaks or grants or interest on tens of millions in the bank early on or private investors or bank loans or anything else, other than the amount pledged.

The amount pledged isn't the only positive entry on the companies balance sheet. So if we're being VERY generous, few hundred grand in refunds? Meh.

how zero objectivity you have and/or how naive you are. But I guess it has nothing to do with naivety and more with 'propaganda monkeys'.

Yes. Because I don't share your opinions, I am naive or brainwashed.

You are most correct my Senpai.

I think it's relevant to look at a person's previous predictions when they make similar predictions later on, so yes.

So do I, however I take a prediction as a prediction, a judgement call based on information available at the time.  It could be wrong, it could be right, it could be half right.


I'm interested if you treat peoples statements of fact in the same way, such as will Star Citizen be Pay 2 Win?  Because the way I see it, Derek Smart gets hilarious comments for making one prediction, while not working for the CIG, that turned out incorrect.  While Chris Roberts makes dozens of statements about things that turn out to be not to be true at all, and some would rather focus on "CIG hasn't gone bust yet!"


"yet" is such a small but important word, if CIG fails to put out an amazing game, who do you think History is going to judge more harshly, the guy that got the date wrong for free or the guy that wasted 150 million of other people's money?

The game won't need to be amazing to succeed. Pay to win is an interesting conversation. I think you have to remember that they have some of the very best game designers working on this game. All the names that the nerds respect for being awesome. Pappy, Zurovec, Roberts Bros etc. It doesn't seem hard to envisage a game where the average Idris owner wouldn't be giving two hoots what the Aurora starter pilot is doing. In any way shape or form. As long as the lone Aurora guy can work his way upwards in vaguely fun ways, it's not pay to win in any game breaking way.

Sorry, but yet again, time will tell. Will some of the best game developers around manage to work out fun stuff for huge ship owners and little ship owners to play and progress? Well I can think of plenty of ways and I'm an idiot. Massive org owner is helping out the UEE or any other faction against any other larger faction, NPC, alien or otherwise. Aurora guy is doing a 'Homestead' type mission. Never shall they cross paths.

It really doesn't seem that hard to me.

How will they be judged? Hey guess what? Time will tell. If it succeeds, some will hail Chris as a visionary genius who made his, and 2.x million other people's, dreams come true. Some will deride his efforts as wasteful, narcissistic and nowhere near good enough.

If it fails, some will hail Chris as the visionary genius who nearly made his, and 2.x million other people's, dream come true. Some will suggest he's worse than Hitler.

[Scruffpuff]

If it fails, some will hail Chris as the visionary genius who nearly made his, and 2.x million other people's, dream come true. Some will suggest he's worse than Hitler.

Chris is not a visionary by any stretch of the imagination.  The idea for Star Citizen is ubiquitous - he's just stupid and narcissistic enough to think his hack inept ass can pull it off.

Chris is hardly Hitler either - he simply a piece of shit and the one obstacle standing between all of us and the game he promised.  That includes you and every other backer keeping the faith.  At some point you're going to have to divorce your worship of this unworthy man from your desire to see the game made, and realize you can't have both.

Remove Roberts from the project and something will get done.  Which comes back to something I've been saying for a while - I don't think people really want this game to be made.  On some level they have to know Chris's historically epic incompetence is killing it.  Yet they keep piling the worship on him, rather than the game itself.  That's a cult of personality, not a gaming community.

I'm blown away, absolutely blown away, that the backers haven't mobilized en masse and demanded CIG to remove Chris from the project or no more donations.  Except that would result in a game being made, which clearly isn't what they want.  Chris worship apparently comes first - a game is just a possible side-effect.

You're keeping the faith, beyond a point that I think is reasonable given the preponderance of evidence, but you're not doing so rudely so that's 100% fine by me.  But since you're not a feral backer like so many are, you can't tell me some of this doesn't ring even a little bit true.

[dsmart]

The flipside of that is even though he has claimed to have money to finish the project if funding stopped - which is now proven to be false - the backers won't stage an uprising because they know that he needs the money, and by not giving him money, they won't get any game. Catch-22.

They're not going to get a game, regardless. So this is all pointless discussion anyway.

[TheShallowGrave]

Intelligence is a rare commodity around here it seems.

 :ironicat:

[Scruffpuff]

The flipside of that is even though he has claimed to have money to finish the project if funding stopped - which is now proven to be false - the backers won't stage an uprising because they know that he needs the money, and by not giving him money, they won't get any game. Catch-22.

They're not going to get a game, regardless. So this is all pointless discussion anyway.

Well how many times have the backers said "It's Chris's vision that made this possible.  Without Chris there is no game."

That is 100% false.  In fact it's the exact opposite of the truth.  It's the backers' vision that made this possible.  With Chris in charge, there is no game.  They need to ditch the hero worship, shore up some self-respect, realize he's burning their cash, demand accountability and make their money work for them - not for him.

[ConfusedMonkeh]

If it fails, some will hail Chris as the visionary genius who nearly made his, and 2.x million other people's, dream come true. Some will suggest he's worse than Hitler.

Chris is not a visionary by any stretch of the imagination.  The idea for Star Citizen is ubiquitous - he's just stupid and narcissistic enough to think his hack inept ass can pull it off.

Chris is hardly Hitler either - he simply a piece of shit and the one obstacle standing between all of us and the game he promised.  That includes you and every other backer keeping the faith.  At some point you're going to have to divorce your worship of this unworthy man from your desire to see the game made, and realize you can't have both.

Remove Roberts from the project and something will get done.  Which comes back to something I've been saying for a while - I don't think people really want this game to be made.  On some level they have to know Chris's historically epic incompetence is killing it.  Yet they keep piling the worship on him, rather than the game itself.  That's a cult of personality, not a gaming community.

I'm blown away, absolutely blown away, that the backers haven't mobilized en masse and demanded CIG to remove Chris from the project or no more donations.  Except that would result in a game being made, which clearly isn't what they want.  Chris worship apparently comes first - a game is just a possible side-effect.

You're keeping the faith, beyond a point that I think is reasonable given the preponderance of evidence, but you're not doing so rudely so that's 100% fine by me.  But since you're not a feral backer like so many are, you can't tell me some of this doesn't ring even a little bit true.

I never said he was a visionary or Hitler. I said some will say it. Calling him a piece of shit seems harsh. Removing him is not exactly an option I wouldn't think. He owns 95% of the shares I believe. (Tax returns).

Chris, and his company, have done what other 'tier 1' devs said was impossible already. (Archived fact). I'm willing to wait and see what else they can do.

I'm glad you've noticed my non rabidosity, appreciate that, but I don't believe the $20K coffee machine, (probably rented for the cost of the coffee they use), or $20K space door, (?!come on?!), or making some workers pissed off or over estimating abilities some what makes him a 'piece of shit'. How many people you know, don't like their boss? Such a big deal.

I don't see how he's 'killing it' either. He's making the game. He's getting it done. Could quote myself here but have a look at my last post again. He's got the content out. Delayed. But done.

'Cant be done', 'Smoke and mirrors', 'Cancelled', nope, nope and nope. Just delayed. Not the worst thing ever.

Broken record time. Time will tell. Not your fortune telling. Not mine. Not anyone's. Just time.

[dsmart]

Chris, and his company, have done what other 'tier 1' devs said was impossible already. (Archived fact).

Such as?

[ConfusedMonkeh]

Chris, and his company, have done what other 'tier 1' devs said was impossible already. (Archived fact).

Such as?

Build a 64 bit floating point precision map in CryEngine, millions of kilometres wide.

[nawledgelambo]

If it fails, some will hail Chris as the visionary genius who nearly made his, and 2.x million other people's, dream come true. Some will suggest he's worse than Hitler.

Chris is not a visionary by any stretch of the imagination.  The idea for Star Citizen is ubiquitous - he's just stupid and narcissistic enough to think his hack inept ass can pull it off.

Chris is hardly Hitler either - he simply a piece of shit and the one obstacle standing between all of us and the game he promised.  That includes you and every other backer keeping the faith.  At some point you're going to have to divorce your worship of this unworthy man from your desire to see the game made, and realize you can't have both.

Remove Roberts from the project and something will get done.  Which comes back to something I've been saying for a while - I don't think people really want this game to be made.  On some level they have to know Chris's historically epic incompetence is killing it.  Yet they keep piling the worship on him, rather than the game itself.  That's a cult of personality, not a gaming community.

I'm blown away, absolutely blown away, that the backers haven't mobilized en masse and demanded CIG to remove Chris from the project or no more donations.  Except that would result in a game being made, which clearly isn't what they want.  Chris worship apparently comes first - a game is just a possible side-effect.

You're keeping the faith, beyond a point that I think is reasonable given the preponderance of evidence, but you're not doing so rudely so that's 100% fine by me.  But since you're not a feral backer like so many are, you can't tell me some of this doesn't ring even a little bit true.

I never said he was a visionary or Hitler. I said some will say it. Calling him a piece of shit seems harsh. Removing him is not exactly an option I wouldn't think. He owns 95% of the shares I believe. (Tax returns).

No sorry, taking money from people expecting an actual product (or those who just give him it because they "BELIEVE IN THE VISION" or whatever fucking stupid philosophical nonsense they're using now) completely justifies being called a piece of shit. Especially with how shady this business is being ran, and the garbage human beings he employs.