If they release at 8 years in, with the speed they have today, they'll have about 40% of all promised features. So dont count on a full game at that point.
I would surmise most of the past few years have been dedicated towards improving the engine they have licensed. It seems very much evident that CryEngine was very much inadequate for the game that Chris Roberts has envisaged.
Work on that engine is still ongoing. But assuming the reports from CIG are correct, the engine is at least vastly improved. CIG are planning to add many of the core mechanics in the next patch...in 3.x.
Once they do that, there is mainly content to add. CIG likely wouldn't have a lot to show if they put in as much work on the engine and toolkit as seems to have occurred.
CIG have no doubt wasted a lot of money thanks to some very questionable decisions. They've wasted time and resources as a result of those same decisions. The game is behind schedule and a modified engine will no doubt cause more problems for CIG than a custom engine would have.
But while I think CIG are over optimistic about their timetable, 8 years is still reasonable. That should, barring unforeseen delays, give them enough time to integrate and develop the mechanics for the game, and craft the 100 systems and ships it promised.
What I wouldn't expect is for those systems to have anything more than a basic level of content.
But if the work on the engine is as complete as indicated, then another 3 years for for the rest of the game isn't an unreasonable timeframe.
They already said (Chris did) that they'll release a minimale viable product: aka they've already cut most features.
No. It just means that they are prepated to launch the game without all tne features promised. That could mean most features added.
Based on their stretch goals, that would include a number of ships, 100 systems, FPS modules and a basic Elite clone. 3.x will give them most of the mechanics needed, the FPS is being added and the space sim is largely in place.
Actually, the educated guesstimates are more around anything around 90-110 mil spend. Dont forget that we have the numbers from last year (UK office) wich show big wages for top brass (and Chris/sandi arent even in there) + the millions lost for actors.
Those figures aren't impossible, but $60-80 million seem fat more likely. Even with your guestimates, that still gives CIG a sizeable buffer alongside what is a robust cash flow. Even at your worst guess, that still gives CIG a $30million buffer and an average income of over $30million a year, with likely expenditures only anout $20-25 million.
Just look at the things we know with 100% certainty:
- They alienate old backers with their marketing campaign (lying, deceiving etc) = no more money from most of them.
- They have more artists and designers then actual coders = slow progres but quick jpeg generation.
- they've chosen a FPS engine and cant even release a FPS minigame in 4 years.
- they're late on their own dates by a margin of years... YEARS....
- they have fixed about 5% of the bugs since 2.0 was released.
Alienated backers doesn't necessarily mean no more backing.
There is always some bottleneck like this.
The FPS game we've seen has only been in development for a year or so. The previous incarnation by Ilfonic was scrapped.
Yes...they are late. Already mentioned.
And this is the Alpha. There are going to be bugs.
I can understand the engine problems, they did not plan to make such a game around kickstarter, but the best choice would've been to ditch cryengine and simply make their own.
As was said before: remove the incompetent leadership and this game will have a chance.. untill then even a torpedo wont speed up the sinking of this ship.
Yes...I've said before CIG should have scrapped CryEngine and made a dedicated engine. But while development is progressing much slower than hoped for, it is nonetheless progressing and there is no sign...no public sign anyway...that CIG are on the verge of collapse or that the "wheels are coming off"
