Based on the total amount taken in by CIG, I don't think the amounts refunded are that significant. Unless of course it totaled 100 million. More significant are the number of accounts that have been refunded. Refunds seem to be on the rise lately(could be wrong) and looks to be due to a lack of trust/faith/etc. in CIG and Croberts. Some members of that group may re-pledge their personal amounts.
Again the important part seems that everyday it looks like more and more original KS backers are jumping ship. I got my 250$ out earlier this year, pledged via KS Oct. 2012. This was also based on personal observations, months before I started following the DS side of things.
And yes, some could be fake. But would not be surprised if some of the gaming sites start reporting on this large refund activity, which will lead to more questions about the state of the game.